Bitcoin Rainbow Chart (Live + History)

How to read the Rainbow Chart

The wiggly orange line is the BTC price on a logarithmic axis. Behind it sit nine coloured valuation bands built around a logarithmic-regression curve — a smooth line fitted to Bitcoin's entire price history that captures its long-run log-growth. The bands run from Basically a Fire Sale at the bottom (historically cheap) through HODL in the middle up to Maximum Bubble Territory at the top (historically expensive). Because price is on a log scale, the model curve is roughly straight and the bands look like a diagonal rainbow rising to the right.

The whole idea in one sentence: when price climbs into the warm red bands it has historically been stretched far above its long-term trend (cycle-top territory), and when it sinks into the cool blue bands it has historically been deeply undervalued (cycle-bottom territory). The 2013, 2017 and 2021 tops all poked into the hot bands; the 2015, 2018 and 2022 bottoms all sank into the cold ones.

It's interactive. Use the 2Y / 4Y / 8Y / All buttons to window the chart, and hover (or tap on mobile) anywhere to read the exact band, model fair value and BTC price on that day.

What the model actually is — and isn't

This tool fits a least-squares regression of the form log10(price) = a · ln(days since genesis) + b over the full daily history, then places the bands at fixed offsets above and below that line in log space. That makes it a descriptive valuation gauge: it tells you how far today's price sits above or below Bitcoin's own long-term growth curve. It is not a forecast. The model is a curve fitted to the past, it drifts as new data arrives, and it assumes Bitcoin keeps roughly following its historical trajectory — an assumption that may not hold as the asset matures. Use it as a slow cycle-phase filter alongside other signals, never as a standalone trigger.

For the day-to-day picture, btclyzer's dashboard fuses long-term gauges like this with RSI, MACD, EMA, Fear & Greed and on-chain data into one live rating. See also the CBBI cycle index and the halving-cycle analyzer for two other lenses on where this cycle sits. For the on-chain angle on the same "cheap vs expensive" question, read how MVRV compares price to holders' cost basis, and how the halving cycle drives the long-term trend this model rides.