Where are we in the Bitcoin cycle?

How the gauge is built

"Where are we in the cycle?" has no single answer — so instead of trusting one indicator, the gauge blends four that look at the cycle from different angles, each on a comparable 0–100 scale:

• CBBI — 50%. The Colin Talks Crypto Bitcoin Bull Run Index is itself a composite of nine on-chain cycle metrics (MVRV Z-Score, Puell Multiple, RHODL, Reserve Risk, Pi Cycle and more). It carries the most weight because it's the most diversified single read of cycle position.
• Price vs the 200-week MA — 30%. The 200-week moving average is Bitcoin's cycle floor — price has only touched it at major bottoms. The multiple of price to that floor (≈1 at bottoms, 4–5x near tops) is normalised onto 0–100.
• Fear & Greed Index — 20%. The crowd-sentiment read, the fastest-moving of the three and a useful confirmation at extremes.
• Days since the halving — context. Shown as a timeline, not a heat input. Historically the parabolic phase has landed 12–18 months after each halving, so the day-count frames whether the other signals are early or late.

The weighted average becomes the cycle-heat score, and the score maps to a phase: deep-value accumulation, recovery, mid-cycle, late-cycle, or euphoria. Low readings have aligned with cycle bottoms (2018–19, 2020, 2022); high readings with tops (2017, 2021).

What it is — and isn't

This is a regime gauge, not a crystal ball. Every input is a lagging cycle metric, the historical zones are drawn from only four cycles, and the 2024 cycle has already broken some of the old patterns (the ETF-driven new high before the halving). Read it as "roughly where in the cycle are we, and how does that compare to history" — then pair it with price structure, trend and your own plan. For the deeper mechanics, see the CBBI explainer and the on-chain metric guides (MVRV, Puell). To see where the current cycle sits against 2012, 2016 and 2020 directly, use the halving cycle analyzer.